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Land transportation
On 17 April 2026, Brent reached USD 98.83 a barrel, up 35% since 27 February, while the week-on-week move was flat at +0.6%. Although huge price gaps remain between countries, EU diesel averaged EUR 2.07 per litre, up 27% cumulatively since the start of the war, down from 33% last week. A similar slight easing of pump prices was also seen in Brazil, Türkiye and the US, but not China. Here is the latest overview for the road transport sector.
Oil markets and supply
Brent, the EU benchmark, reached USD 98 a barrel on Friday 17 April, up 35% since the start of the war.
On the other side of the Atlantic, WTI, the US benchmark, reached USD 94 a barrel, also up 35% over the same period.
However, recent data reported by The New York Times and Argus Media suggests a widening gap between Brent for future delivery, the main benchmark, and the spot price paid for immediate crude purchases.
Under normal conditions, these prices track closely. At present, spot prices are around 40% higher than Brent, meaning refineries are buying crude at a higher cost than the benchmark, which is pushing pump prices up.
Latest IEA data suggests global crude oil supply fell by 10% in March. This is a historic reduction of around 10 million barrels a day. Past energy crises, such as in the 1970s and 1990s, peaked at 5 million barrels a day, with long-lasting consequences.
With 80 production sites damaged since the start of the war, even an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to crude tankers would take months to restore pre-war conditions.
More importantly, around 80% of production could be reactivated quickly, while the remaining 20% may take years, if it can be restored at all. Adding further pressure to the crude oil market, Iran exported 3.6 million barrels a day in March, a volume now at risk given the current US Strait of Hormuz blockage.
The Brent–WTI spread narrowed slightly. WTI stood at USD 93 a barrel versus Brent at USD 98, a discount of just over USD 5. This is roughly half the typical arbitrage gap and suggests US refiners are pulling domestic crude into product runs to partly offset Middle East shortfalls.
US crude oil exports increased by 25% last week, according to the latest EIA data, rising from 4 to 5 million barrels a day.
Natural gas
TTF gas reached EUR 42.42 per MWh on 16 April, up 33% from EUR 31.96 on 27 February.
The week was mostly down – prices eased from EUR 45.30 on 8 April, ticked up to EUR 46.17 on 9 April, fell to EUR 43.64 on 10 April after EU gas storage data came in above expectations, climbed again to EUR 46.41 on 13 April as Ras Laffan (Qatar’s main LNG production site) uncertainty resurfaced, then declined through the week to EUR 41.40 on 15 April before settling at EUR 42.42 on 16 April. Week on week, TTF is down 8%, in line with the Brent pattern.
Goldman Sachs has warned that European TTF underprices the disruption risk and could enter a EUR 75–100 per MWh scenario if flows remain suppressed beyond April. ICIS independently flagged 30 April as an internal decision point: if Hormuz is still throttled at month-end, its modelled elevated-price scenario triggers.
EU gas storage sits at 29.6% full, equivalent to approximately 95 days of supply at current draw rates.
That aggregate number hides a sharp national divergence. The Netherlands' gas storage is at 6.6% – the lowest reading in the EU and well below the level at which replenishment typically begins. Sweden follows at 9.9%, Croatia at 17%, Slovakia and Germany are tied at 23%.
These five countries account for a disproportionate share of the injection capacity that Europe will need as summer nears, and the Netherlands figure in particular is consistent with the prolonged shut-ins at the Groningen field rather than import-flow disruption alone.
If Ras Laffan flows do not resume and the Hormuz situation prevents substitution from other Persian Gulf LNG origins, the injection season starts from the worst position in at least five years.
Road transport impact
For European operators, the combination of a 27% diesel price surge, a EUR 1.21 per litre price spread across the EU, emerging AdBlue supply risks, and the absence of EU-level fiscal coordination creates a uniquely challenging operating environment.
Cross-border operators face unpredictable cost differentials depending on where they refuel, while domestic operators in countries without relief measures (notably the Netherlands, Belgium and Finland) absorb the full price impact.
The few measures explicitly targeting commercial road transport, such as Italy’s highway price reduction, remain national exceptions rather than a coordinated framework. With the ceasefire expiring on 21 April and no EU-wide response in sight, operators face continued uncertainty in Q2.
Adding to the pressure, freight-rate dynamics are not keeping pace with fuel prices. Recent diesel increases are not reflected in current rates, according to the latest Upply data and IRU TCO calculations, meaning operators are burning through cash reserves during this crisis.
A significant legislative development came from Spain on 16 April, where the Council of Ministers approved Royal Decree-Law 9/2026.
The decree substantially strengthens operators' ability to pass through fuel cost increases in the invoicing of their transport services. It updates both the calculation formula for the amounts to be passed through and the way this must be applied – making it mandatory, without the possibility of agreeing otherwise – and establishes penalties for non-compliance.
Outlook: what to watch
21 April – US–Iran ceasefire expiry. The two-week term ends with no extension announced as of today
30 April – Italy's decision on extending the March excise cut, and Croatia’s price-cap expiry on highways
3 May – OPEC+ eight-country monthly review. The group will decide whether to roll the 206,000-barrel-a-day May increment into June or pause