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News from ECG
Türkiye is forecast to hold a stronger position in the automotive production landscape of Europe. Meanwhile local sales within the country are expected to see a relative slowdown, as Türkiye cements itself as a lower cost production alternative to the main stakeholder countries in Europe.
Overall the light vehicle landscape in Türkiye saw sales of 1.34 million units in 2025, as per data from S&P Global Mobility. But by 2029 sales within the country are forecast to have declined by around 80,000 units per annum. Of this, passenger vehicle sales will drop to under 1 million units by the end of 2029, from 1.07 million in 2025. Light commercial vehicle demand remains pretty much stable at around 270k units per annum.
However, production of LCVs is set to soar as the country prepares itself to become the third largest production base in Europe. Volumes are set to jump from 1.38 million units in 2025 to almost 2 million units per annum by 2030. Simple maths shows that if we assume production hits 2 million, and local sales have declined to under 1 million, then the country is looking at exporting over 1 million units per annum as soon as 2030.
Türkiye is thus a major player if these predictions are correct. In 2024 the country produced 1.34 million units, and was positioned 5th in Europe. The top production country in 2024 was Germany with 4.19 million units, followed by Spain with 2.34 million, the Czech Republic with 1.45 million, France with 1.35 million and Türkiye in fifth position with annual production of 1.34 million. But fast forward to 2030 and the story has changed dramatically. Germany’s annual production output is now at 3.78 million units, Spain is at 2.68 million units, and Türkiye is third with 1.86 million units. France and the Czech republic are now in fourth and fifth positions respectively.
For this to happen - for the production landscape in Europe to shift so dramatically - which brands are entering the landscape and raising their stakes in the market? In fact it is a number of new brands. From Togg to BYD and MG, the landscape is diversifying with market share quickly shifting.
ECG Members can access this short preview where we analyse the production landscape in Türkiye here.